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I'm terrified of the New Orleans Saints. I have nightmares about their head coach Jim Haslett.
I don't bet on Saints games because, even though they are a bad team and Haslett is a bad coach, I have trouble handicapping them.
Haslett is the exception to the rule, but in most cases a lot of money can be made by betting against bad coaches. Just stay away from bad coaches and you'll never have to go to the ATM again.
For five weeks, Haslett can look like one of the best coaches in the NFL. The problem is, one never knows which five weeks his team is going to wake up and decide, "Hey, maybe we should play hard today."
Two weeks ago, the Saints suffered two big losses; the game by 49 points to the previously winless Packers, and running back Deuce McAllister who was injured and is now out for the season.
On Sunday, everybody picked the Falcons to cover the five point line against the Saints. With Michael Vick returning for Atlanta, the line seemed too perfect - and it was.
This was the week the Saints decided to play with a chip on their shoulders. Not only did they cover, but the Falcons needed a late field goal just to pull out the 34-31 win.
If you've got the stomach for a wild ride, which I don't, bet heavily on games involving New Orleans.
Conservative coaches are the exact opposite of Haslett. They are a joy to handicap. You know when to load up against them and when to stay away. Give these guys a quarterback who doesn't make mistakes, a solid defense and an easy road schedule, and you can ride them to a 12-4 record.
No one is a better historical and contemporary example than Marty Schottenheimer. The San Diego Chargers look like one of the best teams in the league this year, but if you wake up one Sunday morning and a signal-caller named Billy Joe is leading Schotetenheimer's team into Denver, you obviously want to stay away.
In fact, run away quickly to call your bookie so you can bet against him.
I'm not going to waste much time with Minnesota Vikings head coach Mike Tice because I don't expect him to escape the season with his job. Minnesota is so bad that I didn't even have to think twice to pick the Chicago Bears - with a hobbled running back and rookie quarterback - to take care of the Vikings, which they did, 28-3. When you're leading the likes of Haslett, Dom Capers, Norv Turner and Mike Sherman in the race to get fired, that speaks for itself.
I would like to say a few words about St. Louis Ram head coach Mike Martz, who temporarily gave up control of the team recently because of a medical condition.
In terms of coaches who are fun to bet against, Martz has no peer. His ego forces him to defy convention, resulting in a lot of games that end with the point spread innocently being covered. Martz was never satisfied to win by simply giving the ball to the running back.
Martz's decision-making reminds me of a drive my dad and I took from San Diego to San Francisco after my freshman year. To avoid traffic, Dad wanted to take some detours through some lesser-known freeways. As we cruised through L.A. just one hour into the trip, I sprinkled Dad with compliments centering around the words "genius" and "visionary."
Somehow we ended up lost and sitting in a McDonald's in Clovis. As I bit into my Big Mac, my dad drew up a strategy for the stretch-drive home. I stopped him and said, "Hey Dad, we were looking good there for a while, but let's try to get back to Interstate 5."
Hey Mike, find I-5 (in your case, Marshall Faulk.)
So if you've got a tough decision when completing your pool this week, ask yourself this question: Would you lend your car to the coaches of the teams you picked?
If you don't trust them with your vehicle, think twice before you give them the keys to your Sunday or you might need to use your pink slip to pay your bookie.
-Joe Giovannetti is a journalism junior and a staff writer for The Daily Aztec.
-This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Daily Aztec.
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